Working notes on data, building, and the math of a good bet.

Occasional write-ups — half technical, half thinking out loud.

• Jul 28, 2026I Built a Model to Beat Baseball. It Taught Me Why I Couldn't.A negative-binomial model, 670,000 leakage-safe plate appearances, and a holdout result that ties a coin flip on purpose, honestly, and with the receipts to prove it.