Working notes on data, building, and the math of a good bet.

Occasional write-ups — half technical, half thinking out loud.

• Aug 16, 2026Memory Lane, by Trial and Error: Parsing 24,000 iMessagesFive people, 24,000 messages, and a chat.db file that fights you at every step — on timestamps, on where the text even lives, and on what counts as a message at all.
• Jul 28, 2026I Built a Model to Beat Baseball. It Taught Me Why I Couldn't.A negative-binomial model, 670,000 leakage-safe plate appearances, and a holdout result that ties a coin flip on purpose, honestly, and with the receipts to prove it.